Committing to Peace by Barbara F. Walter

Author:Barbara F. Walter [Walter, Barbara F.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780691089317
Publisher: PrincetonUP
Published: 2021-07-15T00:00:00+00:00

Are Third-Party Guarantees a Rubber Stamp?

The same test was conducted using “third-party security guarantee” as the dependent variable. If it is true that third parties offer security guarantees only after other conditions point to peace, then guarantees should be largely explained by the other independent variables discussed in chapter 3. However, as table 5.4 shows, this is largely not the case. Of all the factors shown to be important at any stage in the process of resolving civil wars, only mediation and a power-sharing pact were significantly related to a third party’s offer to enforce or verify a treaty. None of the other factors highlighted in chapter 3 (such as the duration of war, war deaths, territorial goals, or a military stalemate) predicts when outsiders will choose to offer assistance. Third parties are not more inclined to offer security guarantees in wars that are especially long or bloody, where the combatants have fought to a military stalemate, where they are fighting for more limited goals, or where the government operates under executive constraints. In short, outsiders did not choose to intervene only in those wars that appeared ripe for resolution.

TABLE 5.4

Logit Analysis of Factors Associated with Third-Party Guarantees

Independent Variable Coefficient Standard Error

Duration of war .000 .005

War-related deaths −.003 .003

Military stalemate .79 1.02

Executive constraints −.18 .24

Ethnic division −.02 1.12

Total goals −1.97 1.63

Territorial goals −.58 1.81

Difficulty of division −.17 .50

Mediator 2.22* 1.08

Power-sharing pact 2.50** 1.00

Constant −1.52 1.86

Pseudo R2 .36

χ2 25.58

Note: N = 72. Heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors, clustered by country, were employed.

*p < .05 **p < .01

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